Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers: AI exposure and career outlook
Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers (SOC 11-9013) sit at the 14th percentile for measured AI exposure among the 342 occupations tracked here, measured from a composite of Microsoft Research and Anthropic Economic Index telemetry. An estimated 8% of tasks are already automated and 20% are being reshaped rather than replaced — both modelled figures, not direct measurements. Of the Claude usage observed in this occupation, 43% follows an automation pattern and 57% an augmentation pattern, which places it in the Insulated group: little measured AI exposure so far. No urgency here, though the tools are still worth having in your hands. In Canada the role maps to NOC 80020 (Managers in agriculture), and ESDC's COPS 2024–2033 outlook for that unit group is balance.
Figures last updated 2026-06. Every number on this page is labelled measured or modelled; where a source has no coverage for this occupation, it says so rather than showing a zero.
Key facts
- SOC code
- 11-9013
- Canada NOC 2021
- 80020
- TEER level
- Not available
- COPS outlook
- Balance
What the measurements actually say
Three independent studies measure AI exposure for this occupation directly. The two percentages below them are ours, modelled from those measurements.
| Metric | Value | Provenance |
|---|---|---|
| AI applicability | 8% | Measured — Microsoft Research, from 200,000 Copilot conversations classified against O*NET work activities. |
| Observed AI usage | 0% | Measured — Anthropic Economic Index, share of tasks observed being performed with Claude (CC-BY 4.0). |
| Academic AI exposure | 48th percentile | Measured — Felten-Raj-Seamans AIOE index across 774 occupations; the index underlying Statistics Canada's Canadian estimates. |
| Automation-pattern usage | 43% | Measured — the share of observed Claude usage in this occupation where the task is handed over rather than iterated on (Anthropic Economic Index). |
| Augmentation-pattern usage | 57% | Measured — the complement of the row above; the two sum to 100% by construction. This is the pattern where the person stays in the loop. |
| Estimated task automation (modelled) | 8% | Modelled from this occupation's measured telemetry composite, mapped through anchors calibrated to Anthropic's published aggregate findings. Our estimate, not per-occupation telemetry. |
| Estimated task reshaping (modelled) | 20% | Share of tasks where AI acts as co-pilot rather than replacement. Modelled from the measured telemetry composite, calibrated to BCG's published aggregate reshaping rates. Our estimate. |
This skill domain has minimal AI substitution risk. AI is primarily augmenting — not replacing — professionals here.
In Canada: NOC 80020
Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers map to NOC 80020 — Managers in agriculture. ESDC's COPS 2024–2033 projection for this unit group is Balance.
Mapped via Statistics Canada's official SOC 2018 → NOC 2016 → NOC 2021 correspondence tables (closest match of several correspondence candidates). TEER is the second digit of the NOC code, so it is only as certain as the code is. Several correspondence candidates were available here and we took the closest by title, so we do not report a TEER level for it.
What this job actually involves
These are the O*NET task statements for Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers— the work itself, as reported by people doing the job — grouped by the work activity each task belongs to. Showing 12 of 30, core tasks first.
The exposure figures above are for the occupation as a whole. We do not have a per-task measurement: no published dataset tells us which of these specific tasks AI is doing. Read this as what the job is made of, not as a ranking of what is at risk.
Microsoft's applicability score was itself produced by classifying Copilot conversations against the O*NET work-activity catalogue — the same catalogue these groups come from. The published file gives one number per occupation, not one per activity, so we can tell you that 8% of this occupation's work activities are covered by observed AI usage, but not which ones.
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates · 5 tasks
Manage nurseries that grow horticultural plants for sale to trade or retail customers, for display or exhibition, or for research.
Core task · Importance 4.4/5 (O*NET)
Direct and monitor trapping and spawning of fish, egg incubation, and fry rearing, applying knowledge of management and fish culturing techniques.
Core task · Importance 4.2/5 (O*NET)
Direct and monitor the transfer of mature fish to lakes, ponds, streams, or commercial tanks.
Core task · Importance 4.1/5 (O*NET)
Determine plant growing conditions, such as greenhouses, hydroponics, or natural settings, and set planting and care schedules.
Core task · Importance 4.1/5 (O*NET)
Coordinate clerical, record-keeping, inventory, requisitioning, and marketing activities.
Core task · Importance 3.8/5 (O*NET)
Documenting/Recording Information · 2 tasks
Prepare reports required by state and federal laws.
Core task · Importance 4.0/5 (O*NET)
Maintain financial, operational, production, or employment records for farms or ranches.
Core task · Importance 3.9/5 (O*NET)
Inspecting Equipment, Structures, or Materials · 1 task
Inspect facilities and equipment for signs of disrepair, and perform necessary maintenance work.
Core task · Importance 3.9/5 (O*NET)
Processing Information · 1 task
Collect and record growth, production, and environmental data.
Core task · Importance 4.5/5 (O*NET)
Analyzing Data or Information · 1 task
Determine how to allocate resources and to respond to unanticipated problems, such as insect infestation, drought, and fire.
Core task · Importance 4.1/5 (O*NET)
Performing General Physical Activities · 1 task
Position and regulate plant irrigation systems, and program environmental and irrigation control computers.
Core task · Importance 4.0/5 (O*NET)
Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and Equipment · 1 task
Devise and participate in activities to improve fish hatching and growth rates, and to prevent disease in hatcheries.
Core task · Importance 4.0/5 (O*NET)
Task statements and work activities from the O*NET Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA), used under CC BY 4.0. O*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. USDOL/ETA has not reviewed or approved this material.
That's the average. Is this you?
Everything above describes Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers as a whole. Three questions, and nothing is stored or sent.
Where are you in your career?
What does your week mostly look like?
Is your employer deploying AI?
Where the leverage is
With low AI exposure, the focus for this role is on adopting productivity tools. Leverage AI for scheduling, administrative tasks, and analytics to double operational throughput.
Physical requirements and manual dexterity provide strong natural insulation from AI substitution. AI is primarily a peripheral tool for diagnostics.
Master workflow automation platforms (e.g., Make, Zapier, CRM integrations) to double your output and position for fractional leadership roles.
This guidance is written per exposure band — three texts across all 342 occupations, framed on the ILO's transformation-versus-displacement distinction. It is editorial guidance for the safe band, not an occupation-specific research finding about farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers.
Sources for this occupation
Only the sources that hold data for farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers are listed. A study that does not cover this occupation is not cited here.
- Microsoft Research — Working with AI (Tomlinson et al., arXiv:2507.07935): Measured AI applicability, from 200,000 anonymised Copilot conversations classified against O*NET work activities.
- Anthropic Economic Index: Measured observed AI usage per occupation, from Anthropic's open per-SOC dataset (CC-BY 4.0).
- Felten, Raj & Seamans — AI Occupational Exposure index: Measured academic exposure percentile; the index underlying Statistics Canada's Canadian AI-exposure estimates (Mehdi & Morissette, 2024).
- O*NET Database 31.0 (USDOL/ETA), CC BY 4.0: The occupation's task statements and work activities, verbatim. Joined on SOC 2018 with no crosswalk — O*NET-SOC is built on SOC — and carrying no claim about which tasks AI touches.
- Anthropic Economic Index — collaboration split (release 2026-06-26, CC-BY 4.0): Measured share of observed Claude usage following an automation rather than an augmentation pattern. This is the second axis of the grouping above.
- Statistics Canada NOC 2021 concordance: Official SOC 2018 → NOC 2016 V1.3 → NOC 2021 V1.0 correspondence tables. TEER is the second digit of the resolved code, so we report it only where the concordance gave a single candidate.
- ESDC COPS 2024–2033: Projected labour-market assessment per NOC 2021 unit group, from the Canadian Occupational Projection System open dataset.
- BCG — AI Will Reshape More Jobs Than It Replaces (April 3, 2026): Published aggregate reshaping rates, used to calibrate our modelled percentages. The per-occupation figures here are our estimates, not BCG's data.
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