Physicists and astronomers: AI exposure and career outlook
Physicists and astronomers (SOC 19-2010) sit at the 90th percentile for measured AI exposure among the 342 occupations tracked here, measured from a composite of Microsoft Research and Anthropic Economic Index telemetry. An estimated 61% of tasks are already automated and 79% are being reshaped rather than replaced — both modelled figures, not direct measurements. Of the Claude usage observed in this occupation, 51% follows an automation pattern and 49% an augmentation pattern — close enough to even that the grouping below should be read loosely, which places it in the Displacement risk group: the routine layer of this work is being automated outright. The judgment layer is not, so the move is to own more of it.
Figures last updated 2026-06. Every number on this page is labelled measured or modelled; where a source has no coverage for this occupation, it says so rather than showing a zero.
Key facts
- SOC code
- 19-2010
- Canada NOC 2021
- 21100
- TEER level
- 1 — University Degree
- COPS outlook
- Not assessed
What the measurements actually say
Three independent studies measure AI exposure for this occupation directly. The two percentages below them are ours, modelled from those measurements.
| Metric | Value | Provenance |
|---|---|---|
| AI applicability | 26% | Measured — Microsoft Research, from 200,000 Copilot conversations classified against O*NET work activities. Occupation-group average of 2 detailed roles. |
| Observed AI usage | 33% | Measured — Anthropic Economic Index, share of tasks observed being performed with Claude (CC-BY 4.0). Occupation-group average of 2 detailed roles. |
| Academic AI exposure | 94th percentile | Measured — Felten-Raj-Seamans AIOE index across 774 occupations; the index underlying Statistics Canada's Canadian estimates. Occupation-group average of 2 detailed roles. |
| Automation-pattern usage | 51% | Measured — the share of observed Claude usage in this occupation where the task is handed over rather than iterated on (Anthropic Economic Index). Occupation-group average of 2 detailed roles. |
| Augmentation-pattern usage | 49% | Measured — the complement of the row above; the two sum to 100% by construction. This is the pattern where the person stays in the loop. |
| Estimated task automation (modelled) | 61% | Modelled from this occupation's measured telemetry composite, mapped through anchors calibrated to Anthropic's published aggregate findings. Our estimate, not per-occupation telemetry. |
| Estimated task reshaping (modelled) | 79% | Share of tasks where AI acts as co-pilot rather than replacement. Modelled from the measured telemetry composite, calibrated to BCG's published aggregate reshaping rates. Our estimate. |
This skill domain faces significant AI substitution. The opportunity is in pivoting to AI orchestration and higher-order human judgment within the domain.
In Canada: NOC 21100
Physicists and astronomers map to NOC 21100 — Physicists and astronomers at TEER 1 (University Degree). ESDC's COPS 2024–2033 projection for this unit group is not assessed.
Mapped via Statistics Canada's official SOC 2018 → NOC 2016 → NOC 2021 correspondence tables. TEER is the second digit of the official NOC code, so it cannot disagree with it.
What this job actually involves
These are the O*NET task statements for Physicists and astronomers— the work itself, as reported by people doing the job — grouped by the work activity each task belongs to. Showing 12 of 33, core tasks first.
The exposure figures above are for the occupation as a whole. We do not have a per-task measurement: no published dataset tells us which of these specific tasks AI is doing. Read this as what the job is made of, not as a ranking of what is at risk.
4 of these 12statements do carry one measured signal: Anthropic publishes, per O*NET task, how much of the observed Claude usage on it looked like automation rather than iteration. Those are marked below. It still says how people use AI on that task, not how much of it AI can do — and the unmarked statements carry nothing rather than inheriting the occupation's figure.
Microsoft's applicability score was itself produced by classifying Copilot conversations against the O*NET work-activity catalogue — the same catalogue these groups come from. The published file gives one number per occupation, not one per activity, so we can tell you that 26% of this occupation's work activities are covered by observed AI usage, but not which ones.
SOC 19-2010 is a BLS occupation group. These statements are pooled across the 2 detailed occupations in it, so a given task may apply to only some of them.
Documenting/Recording Information · 4 tasks
Report experimental results by writing papers for scientific journals or by presenting information at scientific conferences.
Core task · Importance 4.7/5 (O*NET) · reported by 1 of 2 occupations in this group
Present research findings at scientific conferences and in papers written for scientific journals.
Core task · Importance 4.7/5 (O*NET) · reported by 1 of 2 occupations in this group
Describe and express observations and conclusions in mathematical terms.
Core task · Importance 4.6/5 (O*NET) · 44% of observed AI use on this task is automation-pattern · reported by 1 of 2 occupations in this group
Write research proposals to receive funding.
Core task · Importance 4.3/5 (O*NET) · reported by 1 of 2 occupations in this group
Analyzing Data or Information · 3 tasks
Analyze data from research conducted to detect and measure physical phenomena.
Core task · Importance 4.8/5 (O*NET) · reported by 1 of 2 occupations in this group
Analyze research data to determine its significance, using computers.
Core task · Importance 4.7/5 (O*NET) · 56% of observed AI use on this task is automation-pattern · reported by 1 of 2 occupations in this group
Perform complex calculations as part of the analysis and evaluation of data, using computers.
Core task · Importance 4.7/5 (O*NET) · 51% of observed AI use on this task is automation-pattern · reported by 1 of 2 occupations in this group
Communicating with Supervisors, Peers, or Subordinates · 2 tasks
Collaborate with other astronomers to carry out research projects.
Core task · Importance 4.4/5 (O*NET) · reported by 1 of 2 occupations in this group
Collaborate with other scientists in the design, development, and testing of experimental, industrial, or medical equipment, instrumentation, and procedures.
Core task · Importance 4.3/5 (O*NET) · reported by 1 of 2 occupations in this group
Controlling Machines and Processes · 1 task
Observe the structure and properties of matter, and the transformation and propagation of energy, using equipment such as masers, lasers, and telescopes, to explore and identify the basic principles governing these phenomena.
Core task · Importance 4.3/5 (O*NET) · reported by 1 of 2 occupations in this group
Developing and Building Teams · 1 task
Mentor graduate students and junior colleagues.
Core task · Importance 4.4/5 (O*NET) · 20% of observed AI use on this task is automation-pattern · reported by 1 of 2 occupations in this group
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates · 1 task
Study celestial phenomena, using a variety of ground-based and space-borne telescopes and scientific instruments.
Core task · Importance 4.5/5 (O*NET) · reported by 1 of 2 occupations in this group
Task statements and work activities from the O*NET Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA), used under CC BY 4.0. O*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. USDOL/ETA has not reviewed or approved this material.
That's the average. Is this you?
Everything above describes Physicists and astronomers as a whole. Three questions, and nothing is stored or sent.
Where are you in your career?
What does your week mostly look like?
Is your employer deploying AI?
Where the leverage is
Transition to high-value advisory, complex case analysis, or AI system oversight. The pivot is to move from routine execution to AI orchestration and quality assurance.
Cognitive, information-based tasks are highly exposed. Entry-level displacement pressure is high, necessitating transition to advisory and governance roles.
Master workflow automation platforms (e.g., Make, Zapier, CRM integrations) to double your output and position for fractional leadership roles.
This guidance is written per exposure band — three texts across all 342 occupations, framed on the ILO's transformation-versus-displacement distinction. It is editorial guidance for the high risk band, not an occupation-specific research finding about physicists and astronomers.
Sources for this occupation
Only the sources that hold data for physicists and astronomers are listed. A study that does not cover this occupation is not cited here.
- Microsoft Research — Working with AI (Tomlinson et al., arXiv:2507.07935): Measured AI applicability, from 200,000 anonymised Copilot conversations classified against O*NET work activities.
- Anthropic Economic Index: Measured observed AI usage per occupation, from Anthropic's open per-SOC dataset (CC-BY 4.0).
- Felten, Raj & Seamans — AI Occupational Exposure index: Measured academic exposure percentile; the index underlying Statistics Canada's Canadian AI-exposure estimates (Mehdi & Morissette, 2024).
- O*NET Database 31.0 (USDOL/ETA), CC BY 4.0: The occupation's task statements and work activities, verbatim. Joined on SOC 2018 with no crosswalk — O*NET-SOC is built on SOC — and carrying no claim about which tasks AI touches.
- Anthropic Economic Index — collaboration split (release 2026-06-26, CC-BY 4.0): Measured share of observed Claude usage following an automation rather than an augmentation pattern. This is the second axis of the grouping above.
- Statistics Canada NOC 2021 concordance: Official SOC 2018 → NOC 2016 V1.3 → NOC 2021 V1.0 correspondence tables. TEER is the second digit of the resolved code, so we report it only where the concordance gave a single candidate.
- BCG — AI Will Reshape More Jobs Than It Replaces (April 3, 2026): Published aggregate reshaping rates, used to calibrate our modelled percentages. The per-occupation figures here are our estimates, not BCG's data.
Related occupations
Other roles in Science & Education.
This is the picture for the role. What about your skills?
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